Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.172055 34.719042 40.806604 47.953341 56.082433 65.009697 75.522372
2025-02-09 21.378388 28.819948 37.795532 49.284067 63.452790 80.203944 101.341139
2025-02-16 16.832027 25.033775 35.673464 50.196071 69.178885 92.805299 124.047446
2025-02-23 13.428080 21.804121 33.386345 50.085097 72.990948 102.712737 143.504524
2025-03-02 10.668651 18.839613 30.836187 49.020555 75.063265 110.111884 159.781634
2025-03-09 8.793086 16.786286 29.182292 48.830602 78.050562 118.628054 177.715487
2025-03-16 6.759108 14.057319 26.065005 46.016762 76.868121 121.101450 187.293313
2025-03-23 5.943207 13.230405 25.786789 47.416451 81.857228 132.419123 209.607487
2025-03-30 4.904684 11.785195 24.262089 46.612309 83.331940 138.601102 224.753007
2025-04-06 4.510516 11.499713 24.678319 48.989534 89.867534 152.530016 251.695392
2025-04-13 3.454912 9.635401 21.987140 45.773478 87.127195 152.189765 257.375438
2025-04-20 3.053556 9.095813 21.688847 46.688868 91.176808 162.437181 279.335655
2025-04-27 2.829129 8.986326 22.347159 49.646228 99.295228 180.155564 314.595103
2025-05-04 2.474471 8.489591 22.179166 51.101761 105.035404 194.550044 345.651405
2025-05-11 2.132671 7.928957 21.780107 52.046062 109.903392 207.731146 375.325111
2025-05-18 1.774164 7.210040 20.907380 51.932087 112.810196 217.758128 400.320711
2025-05-25 1.422023 6.384482 19.637068 50.835791 113.773316 224.495315 420.188855
2025-06-01 1.177947 5.807679 18.849842 50.640155 116.367810 234.080355 445.036751
2025-06-08 0.867295 4.859949 16.936971 47.741622 113.476025 233.901299 453.528980
2025-06-15 0.768964 4.663728 16.961540 49.183560 119.223064 249.229545 488.725887
2025-06-22 0.614904 4.165695 16.055589 48.355175 120.306713 256.192198 509.837614
2025-06-29 0.572593 4.141927 16.508372 50.803843 128.269094 275.995614 553.780247
2025-07-06 0.403425 3.411897 14.693777 47.490969 123.924230 272.879295 557.586822